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JUGLAR, Clément.

Des crises commerciales et de leur retour périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-unis.

Paris, Guillaumin et Cie, 1862 Stock Code: 118820
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First edition of the book that laid the foundation of modern business cycle analysis. Des crises commerciales is the principal work of a man whom Schumpeter says "must be ranked, as to talent and command of scientific method, among the greatest economists of all times". Schumpeter bases his evaluation on three facts: "To begin with, Juglar was the first to use time-series material (mainly prices, interest rates, and central bank balances) systematically and with the clear purpose in mind of analyzing a definite phenomenon... Second, having discovered the cycle of roughly ten years' duration that was most obvious in his material - it was he who discovered the continent; islands near it several writers had discovered before - he proceeded to develop a morphology of it in terms of 'phases'... Third, he went on to try his hand at explanation. The grand feature about this is the almost ideal way in which 'facts' and 'theory' are made to intertwine... But all-important was his diagnosis of the nature of depression, which he expressed with epigrammatic force in the famous sentence: 'the only cause of depression is prosperity.' This means that depressions are nothing but adaptations of the economic system to the situations created by the preceding prosperities and that, in consequence, the basic problem of cycle analysis reduces to the question what is it that causes prosperities... Economists were at first slow to follow up Juglar's lead. Later on, however, most of them, even those who were more inclined than he was to commit themselves to particular hypotheses concerning 'causes,' adopted his general approach" (pp. 1123-4).
This is a British Museum duplicate, transferred to the Guildhall Library in 1889 and subsequently deaccessioned.

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Octavo (217 x 135 mm). Recent red quarter morocco and marbled boards, spine ruled and lettered gilt.


Library stamps to half-title verso, title and title verso and a few other leaves, leaves guarded and resewn; an attractive copy.


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